One man in Iran must have slept better since the election of Hassan
Rouhani : it is the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
In 2009, when hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of Iranians were
demonstrating in the streets, the Pasdaran kept for about a fortnight a plane
ready to exfiltrate him out of the country, probably towards Syria. The regime
vacillated upon its base. Shortly after the hasty proclamation of Ahmadinejad
as the winner, Khamenei, hoping to silence the protesters, presented the result
as a "Judgment of God". With no avail. Why having thus given all the
signals of a blatant and massive fraud?
It seems clear today that the heart of the Regime, Ali Khamenei and his
close affiliates, got somehow persuaded that Mousavi's candidacy was supported
by a foreign plot, trying to stir a kind of Iranian "Velvet
Revolution". Khamenei himself must not have been too difficult to
convince, having developed towards Mousavi a solid hatred from the time, in the
eighties, when the latter, as Prime Minister, was constantly trying to confine
Khamenei, then President of the Republic, to protocolar tasks. But on what
grounds could the Council of Guardians eliminate him? He had an impeccable
record at the head of the Government during the "Sacred Defense"
against Saddam, and had since then maintained a more than discreet presence in
public life. His disqualification could only come from the polls. It was then
essential that he should not reach the second round, where he could have
coalesced all the oppositions against Ahmadinejad. Hence the necessity of a
clear victory of Ahmadinejad in a first and last round.
These are the nightmares which must have haunted Khamenei during the
four years of Ahmadinejad’s second presidency. In 2013, the heart of the
Regime, adopted opposite tactics : eliminate any dangerous candidate at
the early stage of the Council of Guardians' selection, before the heat and
excitement of the campaign. This is how Rahim Mashaei, the highly visible and
controversial Ahmadinejad's crony was disqualified and, even more risky,
Rafsandjani, Eminence of the Islamic Republic, on the sole ground, carefully
distilled to the public, of his old age. Nobody moved. What a relief!
With selected candidates all perfectly loyal to the Leader, Khamenei had
no difficulty to proclaim that he had no favorite. The only remaining problem,
with candidates of medium to low visibility, was the question of citizens'
participation. This could be easily doctored. But then came the miracle of the
campaign, during which the remaining candidates, entering into their roles,
adopting more and more contrasting positions, started stirring the public's
interest. And in a few days, enthusiasm built up in favor of the only candidate
who spoke openly about political freedom, and most of all about the return of
prosperity through the easing of international sanctions and the reformation of
Ahmadinejad's erratic economic policy. No need, this time, to intervene into
the polls' results. To the surprise of all, including Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani,
with 50.7% of the votes, wrapped up the election from the first round.
Ali Khamenei has all the reasons to be happy with the election of Hassan
Rouhani. He has known him since the beginning of the Revolution, and as soon as
elected as Supreme Leader, in 1989, gave him a seat in the Supreme National
Security Council. He appointed him for a time as Secretary General of the same body,
and even as his personal representative in the Council up to his election as
President. Khamenei is not bothered by Rouhani's proximity with his arch rival
Rafsandjani, having been able to verify his loyalty when Rouhani was in charge
of the delicate nuclear negotiation with the Europeans, from 2003 to 2005. He
knows from experience that even in case of diverging points of view, Rouhani
will never take him by surprise. He gave him wide margins of negotiation at
this time, even when Rouhani’s policy of engagement with the Europeans ran against
his own convictions. Rouhani is the man who convinced Khamenei, by the end of
2003, that the time had come to put an end to the clandestine nuclear military
program run by the Pasdaran. Not because of the pressure created by the
American presence in Iraq and in Afghanistan, but because the most dangerous
enemy of Iran, Saddam Hussein, had fallen, and it was finally clear that Iraq
had not been trying to get the Bomb. And perhaps most of all because Iran, reciprocating
the European demonstration of goodwill, had accepted to implement the IAEA
Additional Protocol opening the whole Iranian territory to international
inspections. From then on, if such a clandestine program went on, the risk to
be caught red-handed was definitely too high.
As we know today from the American Intelligence Community and IAEA
reports, this difficult decision was not only taken, but implemented. Rouhani
is the man who steered the whole process, never failing, of course, to report
to Khamenei. The Supreme Leader saw that he had the capacity to manage tense
situations at the highest level. And he can feel assured today that Rouhani,
thanks to his long practice of the avenues of power, has the capacity to put
together an Administration composed of the best elements available in the
country. Khamenei has then all the reasons to leave him ample leeway for
bringing in as soon as possible significant results. The most important of
these reasons being the fact that the Islamic Republic, after the success of
the last election, can expect to be granted a new lease in terms of
credibility, and even of legitimacy, if it can demonstrate its capacity to respond
to the expectations of the Iranian electorate. Of course, nor the best, nor the
worst, is certain. But, in the short run, Khamenei can hope to have finally
encountered in Rouhani the ideal associate, able to prepare the country for his
own succession.
For one has to remember that the Supreme Leader has occupied his charge
for almost 25 years. He will soon be 74 and is not in perfect health. He should
have started worrying about the future of Iran beyond him. And if only for
preparing his own place in history, he should aspire to leave to his still unknown
successor a country a little less depressed economically, better assured of its
security, and less at loggerheads with its environment. For such a task,
Rouhani could be the right man, in the right place, coming at the right moment.
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