published on the Lobelog website on November 8, 2014
Secretary of State John Kerry has a hectic traveling
schedule, and this month’s itinerary has been particularly focused on doing
everything to ensure a good deal with Iran over its nuclear program is achieved
by the deadline of November 24. A series of meetings between Kerry and some
members of the P5+1 (France, Germany, UK, China, Russia, US) give us an idea of
the extent of the last minute scrambling occurring behind the scenes to ensure
all bases are covered prior to the official resumption of talks in Vienna on
November 18.
Kerry met with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius
in Paris on Nov. 5 for a number of reasons, including answering France’s
questions about the “framework” the US has presented to the Iranians in order
“to meet their peaceful energy needs.” Two days earlier, this document was
alluded to by President Obama in a news conference, and could be centered on an Iran-Russia
deal, but there has been
no confirmation of the details. While Kerry also likely asked for Fabius’ help
in suspending or lifting (in due time) European sanctions against Iran, his
main purpose for the meeting was to ensure that the French minister would not
repeat his public tantrum from around this time last year when Fabius declared
that the draft provisional agreement negotiated between the US and Iran in
Geneva—and discovered at the last moment by other members of the P5+1—was some
kind of a “sucker’s deal.” This time Kerry is taking no risks and Fabius is
being kept carefully abreast of the latest developments between Washington and
Tehran.
Meanwhile, Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy
chief, met in Vienna Nov. 7 with the P5+1’s political directors. Again, the
main purpose of the meeting was clearly aimed at making sure that everybody is
informed and agrees with the recent turn of events.
Today, John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov had a bilateral meeting in Beijing on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Kerry was probably keen to verify, one last
time, that Russia is ready to accept on its soil the bulk of the low-enriched
uranium (LEU) produced by the Iranians to reprocess it into nuclear fuel
elements for Iran’s Bushehr plant. This operation would extend the “breakout
time” necessary for the Iranians to accumulate the quantity of highly enriched
uranium necessary for a bomb, and therefore make an Iranian enrichment program
with a few thousand centrifuges more acceptable to the American Congress and
the Israeli government. Kerry is well aware that Russia’s full collaboration on
this point is essential for the completion of an agreement and wants no
last minute surprises.
Thus protected on his flanks by these two sessions,
Kerry will meet his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in the company
of Ashton, for two days in Oman, which hosted the initial
US-Iran meetings that
got us to this point, from Nov 9-10. This meeting will be aimed at narrowing
the parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the official
name of the final agreement.
Following Lavrov’s guarantee on the removal and
processing of Iranian LEU, the number of authorized operating Iranian
centrifuges should not be a major sticking point anymore. But one last big
hurdle remains: the timetable for the suspension and lifting of sanctions.
After his conversation with Fabius, and with the support of Ashton, Kerry is
likely to confirm Europe’s readiness to lift or suspend a significant amount of
its own sanctions at an early stage. As for the American sanctions, it must not
have been difficult for him to convince his interlocutor that the only
realistic solution is to strike a deal that would not need the formal approval
of Congress. President Obama would then act through executive orders and, when
necessary, waive Congress-approved sanctions as long as he is in office,
leaving to his successor the responsibility of asking Congress to remove them
for good. Kerry could also make the credible argument that—if the agreement was
faithfully followed by both sides for the remainder of Obama’s term—it would be
practically impossible for any future president and Congress to destroy the
positive results that would have been achieved.
Following the trilateral meeting, a session at the
political directors’ level will also occur in the friendly Sultanate of Oman,
on Nov. 10. It will likely be devoted to drawing the conclusions of the
just-completed ministerial session, and putting together all the elements of
the final agreement. After a lapse of about a week, allowing for consultations
in the capitals and the informing of the most interested observers (the
International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN secretariat, Saudi Arabia, Israel…)
Iran and the P5+1 are scheduled to meet in Vienna on Nov. 18 for a marathon
round just one week before the deadline for a final deal. This should be enough
time to iron out the last details of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
and call upon the seven Foreign Ministers representing the parties to the
agreement, as well as Catherine Ashton as the EU’s representative, to proceed
together to the signing ceremony.
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